As many have said, a decade is an eternity in politics. {mprestriction ids="1,3"}I can’t predict what will happen with Iran in the next decade, although they seem not to have moved very far since 1979. Nonetheless, this agreement will tell the Israelis, the Saudis, the Jordanians and everyone else in the Middle East to get their house in order or suffer the consequences. That is part of the bargain.
Because no one has presented any comprehensive arguments regarding the aftermath of rejection I can only conclude one of two things: They are willing to deal with the consequences; or, they’re just not saying and everyone else knows something I don’t know. Given that this agreement has been so widely debated, I think that’s unlikely.
I am convinced that the European nations will go ahead with dropping the sanctions and begin to deal with Iran as a nation among nations. Europe, after all, cares little for Israel. They will not be swayed by those who feel threatened. They are containing Iran’s threat to them primarily. Having led the coalition agreement, the U.S. will be isolated and ineffectual in our opposition to Iran if it is rejected. The Obama administration has done an excellent job, and been given too little credit, getting these sanctions together and forcing the Iranians to deal with us. But that pressure will not continue forever. Now’s the time to reap the rewards that exist for the financial pressures on Iran. It’s now or never.
Having said that, there is a solution that much of the Jewish community will hate, and few others are willing to accept. But here it is:
Israel needs to make peace with Saudi Arabia and Jordan. There’s a Saudi Peace Plan on the table that’s been there since 2002. To the best of my knowledge, the Israelis never responded. It offered peace and complete recognition for returning to the 1967 borders. It’s not the final offer. It’s a place to begin sincere negotiations. Why now?
ISIS is championing the cause of the Sunnis in the Middle East.
Syria is ineffectual, and likely suffer a de facto split, with part of it going to ISIS.
Iraq is likely to split, or maintain the current balance of power for the foreseeable future.
Saudi Arabia, although Sunni, is being opposed and their government endangered by both Shi’ite Iran on the east and ISIS in the north.
Jordan is always in danger, and ISIS will threaten them next. Their most powerful close-by ally will be Israel. Jordan needs an ally.
Saudi Arabia and Jordan need Israel, and Israel needs two things: a peace agreement within recognized borders and protection against Iran. An anti-Iran alliance in the Middle East, including Egypt, will counter Iran’s power as Saddam Hussein did before President Bush knocked him out of power and disturbed the balance of power in the Middle East.
As I said: Israel will not go for this, because of Netanyahu’s delusional megalomania. He thought he could interfere in American politics and stick his finger in the eye of the United States, and what has it availed him? Europe opposes Israel and there’s a rise in anti-Semitism; the right wing in Israel is becoming increasingly exclusionary and even the military cannot control them; ISIS will be a threat from the east, perhaps even on Israel’s Syrian border, and Iran from further east. The Palestinians, Hamas and Hezbollah will continue as they have in the past. The world Jewish community, particularly the American Jews who are not yet disgusted by Netanyahu’s belligerence, oppression of Palestinians and interference in American politics, will not turn against Israel but will walk away partially in confusion and partially in disgust. Netanyahu will find Israel increasingly isolated unless he makes peace. And that is what I see happening: the increasing abandonment of Israel, while the Jewish community sits back and wrings its hands crying “Why does the world always hate us and turn to anti-Semitism?” when we squandered the moral high ground and are destroying our alliance with the most powerful government in the world.
The agreement with Iran needs to pass Congress. Israel needs to negotiate behind the scenes with Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. Iran must be contained. And Israel needs to live off the world’s front pages for a while, without constantly making enemies due to her unwillingness to negotiate.
I know Jews are afraid. I know we think of a second Holocaust. Let me remind those who can remember that in the ‘50s the U.S. was afraid we’d be attacked by a newly nuclear-armed Soviet Union. Everyone thought the Soviets were crazy and sought world domination, just as they say about Iran today. Had an agreement like this one come up, most people would have opposed it out of distrust. See “Dr. Strangelove!” But as it turned out: vigilance and constant negotiation won out, and the world lived without an additional world war or nuclear explosion. Rationality reigned, and we lived with an uncomfortable peace.
War is not the answer. A pause of a decade is the answer. Further negotiation is the answer. Seeking peace is the answer. And those people who will now write in response that there is no one to make peace with: now there’s a new set of circumstances. Saudi Arabia, too, is existentially afraid, and they have better reason than Israel. Amazingly, now is the time for peace, if our diplomats, Israeli and American, have the ingenuity and energy to make it happen.
Rabbi Mark Levin is founding rabbi of Congregation Beth Torah.{/mprestriction}
