“Arab Spring or Islamist Winter?” is the title of this year’s Milton Firestone Lecture, to be held at noon Sunday, Jan. 13, at the Jewish Community Center. Zvika Krieger, senior vice president of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace and Foreign Policy Correspondent for The Atlantic, coordinating Middle East coverage, will present an overview of the of the opportunities and challenges in the “new Middle East.”
With a bachelor’s degree in Middle East Studies from Yale, Krieger was born and raised in Los Angeles. He has studied Arabic at the American University in Cairo and participated in many fellowship programs where he studied issues such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, Kifaya Reform Movement in Egypt, religious identity in Kashmir and the role of religion in Lebanese politics.
Krieger’s program is part of the Jewish Community Center’s Authors Series. The Milton Firestone Lecture is held each year in memory of Firestone, who served as co-founder and editor of The Kansas City Jewish Chronicle.
In a recent interview, Krieger discussed several issues with The Chronicle including the following:
Q: Do you think that Hamas would ever agree to land swaps when they also declare that all of Israel belongs to them?
Krieger: “It is important to recognize that when different Hamas leaders make statements, they often contradict themselves and change positions. Hamas consistently said they would support any peace agreement if put before Palestinian people and if they agreed, Hamas would agree. Now 60 to 70 percent of Palestinians said that they are willing to accept a peace agreement based on 1967 lines with land swaps. But as more Palestinians get disenfranchised, it will be more difficult. However, a two-state solution still has majority support among Palestinians. The two-state solution has higher support in Israel with 70-80 percent agreeing with it.”
Q: The Arab Spring shows how tight the control of leaders in Arab countries is over the political process. How do you think things will play out in Egypt?
Krieger: “The liberal opposition did not want a vote and wanted to wait a year to get organized. But the Muslim Brotherhood wanted early elections because it had organization. They got what they wanted, and they won. There are lots of reasons to be concerned. The Muslim Brotherhood showed its dictatorial ways with its decrees. It concerns me and is disconcerting how Morsi has been leading Egypt. However, there are some signs for optimism. For example the referendum on the constitution: 56 percent were in support. For me that is stunning. I lived in Egypt during Mubarak, and referendums passed by 90 percent. This is a dramatic change for Egypt. Real democracy. You can have problems with the undemocratic way of writing a constitution, and that the Islamics got too much input in the process. But the fact that so many voted against in large numbers, and … the results were reported honestly, that shows progress.”
Q: Does the United Nations change in recognition of Fatah and the West Bank set back or bring forward peace talks?
Krieger: “Definitely this victory is only symbolic for Palestinians. And this symbolic victory is so much stronger because Israel was so against it. If Israel was not so much against it, it would have just come and gone. Israel’s number one concern about Palestinians as a non-voting observer is that they would bring Israel to trial in International Court. The question is, are the Palestinians eligible to join the court? Also they might be reluctant to do that, as then they also fall under the court’s jurisdiction for terrorism and targeting civilians. So what are implications of using the court? I don’t think this moved the peace process forward in any way. There is no tangible gain. And it made Israel more stubborn.”
Q: Do you think that Egypt and Jordan will keep their treaties with Israel?
Krieger: “I think Egypt will keep the peace treaty. The Muslim Brotherhood is hostile with Israel. There is lots of rhetoric, but at the same time, this is a government that was brought to power with demonstrations to fix the economy. It was not about Israel. Their main priority is rebuilding the economy and they will lose lots of aid if they end the treaty. … So I don’t see this as a problem.”
Q: How safe is King Abdullah in Jordan?
Krieger: “Difficult question. All around him dictators and monarchs are falling. However, there is an interesting split in Jordan (between) the middle class businessman (Hasmoneans) and the Jordanians of Palestinian descent, who have the majority. However, the businessmen do not want Abdullah to fall. They do not want Palestinians to take over the county. So until you get East Bank Jordanians to join with West bank Jordanians, Abdullah is safe.”
Q: How much of a player in the region is Turkey? Has the fact that they ended their relationship with Israel impacted the peace process?
Krieger: “I think that Turkey is becoming significantly more important. A vacuum formed (in the Middle East) with the fall of Mubarak and Assad, and Turkey is trying to fill that vacuum. It also is seen as a buffer with Iran. It is a grave tragedy that the relationship between Israel and Turkey has deteriorated. They have the most vested interests as to what is happening in Syria. … The Islamic party in control of Turkey has not been helpful, because it is sympathetic to Hamas, even though they are different. This relationship change has been detrimental to Israel. It’s still a possibility that it can recover at some point. Because, fundamentally their interests are aligned.”
Q: Should I even mention Syria…..What will be the outcome when Bashar Assad and Syria have a final settlement?
Krieger: “It is difficult to see how things will end in Syria. Hard to see Assad in power, but unclear as to what will happen. ... What will happen with all the Islamic groups coming in? Obama has been justifiably hesitant to give the rebels arms because we do not know who they are loyal to. He does not want post-Assad Syria to be home for Islamic radicals. A difficult situation, but the U.S. cannot continue to stand by as thousands are being slaughtered. The U.S. will have to help the rebels, while also making sure arms do not get into wrong hands.”
Q: Is there a solution?
Krieger: “I think that we are in a stalemate right now. I think Netanyahu and Abbas do not trust each other at all. ... There is no one in Fatah to replace Abbas, no one more moderate than him. And come January Netanyahu will probably be re-elected for four to six years. … But what I always say is just when you don’t expect it, something can happen. For example, if Sharon hadn’t fallen into a coma, it would have been totally different. ... However, Iran can change the status quo. America and Israel both want to have this issue resolved in the next year. … One reason Israel is reluctant to negotiate is because Iran is the number one issue. If this is off the plate, Israel might be willing to negotiate, Also, if Obama is able to take care of Iran, then Israel would trust him more and to deal with other issues.”